I See A Bad Moon Rising
This week’s “pop” hit is the 1969 “I See a Bad Moon Rising” by Creedence Clearwater Revival. Many economic signs are pointing to an imminent recession on the horizon, as well as possible “geo-political” events that could move our economy deep into recession. We are currently seeing the following things:
- GDP has dropped for several quarters in a row.
- Well-known businesses are filing for bankruptcy due to a lack of sales.
- Fast food places like McDonalds are seeing daily traffic drop.
- Personal credit debt has hit all-time highs.
- Cash Out refinances are at all-time highs.
- Unemployment is at its highest level since October of 2021.
- Tensions between Iran & Israel are nearing a “boiling point.”
- Housing sales are down.
- Housing prices are beginning to “cool” off.
All the above should have had our Federal Reserve folks making cuts long before now. But they seemed to be focused, until now, just on the inflation rate and not the total macroeconomic picture. Their delay may send us deep into a recession before the end of the year, and I would argue that we are most likely in a recession now. I realize that the talk is now that the FED may make an emergency cut prior to their September meeting. While I would applaud such a move, I highly doubt that will happen. They had a meeting last week and did not do it then. A move now would simply add to the lack of confidence the market already has in them and could send the markets into a tailspin. They were late hiking rates, and they are now late in cutting rates. Why is this such a surprise? The good news is that we should see notably lower mortgage rates by the end of the year.
You and I are only sometimes right; the market is always right.
Remember… the BEST RATE… IS A LOCKED RATE… with a float down… ask me about our program that allows you to lock your rate and then float down if rates move lower.
Make sure you (or your buyer) get pre-approved before looking at homes so we can determine if you are looking in the correct price range and have you armed to submit an offer with a pre-approval letter!
Thank you for reading this blog. I hope that the facts and insights I share provide value to you.
If you’d like to allow me to invade your inbox and receive a weekend update from me each week, please provide your name and email address, and I’ll start sending over more facts and insights like you just read, as well as current market rates and news. If you have a topic you would like me to consider covering, please feel free to send it over. Who knows… I may write about it!
Blog post date: Thursday, August 8, 2024
