Oops! I/We Did It Again
My musical inspiration this week comes from the 2000 hit “Oops… I Did It Again” by Britney Spears. What I’m referring to is this: how many times do we have to watch the so-called “heroes of Wall Street” get it wrong with their expert analysis, only for the cable news talking heads to jump on the bandwagon, causing enormous swings in the market?
We have continued to see mortgage rates swing between 6.50% and 7.50% in just the past 4 months based on whether the tariffs will help or hurt our economy. And not focusing on the old school facts that have driven the market and rates in the past, like:
- Housing resales are DOWN 5.9%*
- Housing inventory is UP 20% year-over-year*
- Slowest real-estate sales since 2009, one year after the “Great Recession” began*
- 60% of all Metro ATL sales now include seller-paid contributions for costs or points
- Unemployment data is beginning to show weakness
*Data via the National Association of Realtors.
All of these have been… and I believe still are… tell-tale signs of a pending recession. The years we have seen recessions are, in many cases, the years we have seen rates moving to lower levels. Our “heroes” fail to see that if people don’t have jobs or are worried about their future job status, they simply do not buy goods and services. It is truly a simple concept, and if I am right about the pending recession, prices will fall despite any tariffs. If consumer prices fall, inflation falls, and rates will fall. It is kind of my “canary in the coal mine” theory. Rates dropping below 6% will most likely spark housing sales, and housing sales tend to be the first sector that leads the economy out of recession. But for now… we will most likely continue to deal with our “heroes” who will continue to say “Oops, I got it wrong again.”
Remember… the BEST RATE… IS A LOCKED RATE… with a float down… ask me about our program that allows you to lock your rate and then float down if rates move lower.
Make sure you (or your buyer) get pre-approved before looking at homes so we can determine if you are looking in the correct price range and have you armed to submit an offer with a pre-approval letter!
Thank you for reading this blog. I hope that the facts and insights I share provide value to you.
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Blog post date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
