Oops I Did It Again
This week’s “pop” hit is the April of 2000 hit “Oops I Did It Again” by Britney Spears. The title alone can relate to our current Federal Reserve Chairman and Board who seem to have once again missed the mark by being late to the party… whether it was raising rates several years ago and putting us in the inflation mess we have experienced over the past year, or now not lowering rates down sooner to avoid what appears to be an unavoidable recession. The question now is how bad the recession will be in the coming months and how prolonged could it be. Notice, I did not say possible recession. That ship has sailed so get ready for it.
As I have said before, I am not predicting how many cuts they will make this year… but I will say that the total of their cuts will be .75% by the end of the year. While I do believe they will make a cut during their September meeting, it may only be .25% unless we get an unemployment number in September that pushes near 4.4 to 4.5%. Otherwise, bet on only .25% as a .50% will only send a message that they once again were late to the party, and a continued lack of confidence will grow regarding our current Federal Reserve which could have an impact on the DOW and other market related investments. If I am correct that they will only lower .25% during their September meeting. Don’t look for mortgage rates to drop due to this cut as this cut has been anticipated and is already “baked in” to our current rates. However, if we were to get a .50% cut in September, we should see rates continue to inch down over the next 45 days. This continued move to lower mortgage rates should wake up an anemic housing market and 4th quarter may be the best quarter of the year. I truly believe that we may possibly see rates in the high 5% range by year end. What a nice Holiday gift that would be.
Remember: You and I are only sometimes right; the market is always right. Have a great day!
Remember… the BEST RATE… IS A LOCKED RATE… with a float down… ask me about our program that allows you to lock your rate and then float down if rates move lower.
Make sure you (or your buyer) get pre-approved before looking at homes so we can determine if you are looking in the correct price range and have you armed to submit an offer with a pre-approval letter!
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Blog post date: Thursday, August 15, 2024
