If You Ever Want to See A Rainbow, You Have to Stand A Little Rain

This week’s musical inspiration comes from the 1986 hit by The Nitty Gritty Dirt Band, “Stand a Little Rain.” For those who may not know my background, I received my economic education at the College of William & Mary—an institution often viewed as liberal, but where I was fortunate to be taught by professors whose approach to economics was rooted in classical, conservative theory. At the same time, they emphasized the importance of examining all sides of an issue and even encouraged thinking beyond conventional boundaries.

The current conversation around tariffs has taken on a life of its own, especially with the DOW taking a serious hit this past week and mortgage rates jumping in a matter of days. The dominant narrative suggests that tariffs are inherently inflationary, leading to rising rates and dragging the economy into a recession. (For what it’s worth, I’ve said before—and still believe—we may already be there; the mainstream just hasn’t caught up yet.)

While there’s some truth to that narrative on the surface, it’s worth digging deeper. If these tariffs are simply leveling the playing field with what other countries are already charging us, the question becomes: why shouldn’t we do the same? In fact, this move could serve as a catalyst for broader negotiations—potentially leading to reduced or even eliminated tariffs on both sides. Reports indicate that over 70 countries are currently in discussions with the U.S. to do just that.

Another argument making the rounds is that tariffs will inevitably be passed on to U.S. consumers. Again, that might seem logical at first glance, but it’s not a guaranteed outcome. Consumers are sensitive to price—there’s a point where they’ll simply seek out alternatives. So, while some prices may increase, many won’t. And if we truly are entering a recessionary period, basic supply and demand dynamics will ultimately dictate pricing behavior.

I’m not saying the DOW’s recent slide isn’t painful—it is. But history has shown us time and again that markets are resilient. They correct. The song this week reminds us that sometimes we have to endure a little rain before we see the rainbow. I believe we’re in that rainy patch now—but I’m confident the rainbow’s on the way.

Remember… the BEST RATE… IS A LOCKED RATE… with a float down… ask me about our program that allows you to lock your rate and then float down if rates move lower.

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Blog post date: Thursday, April 10, 2025